Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine estimates the negative impact of military conflict in the east of Ukraine on GDP fall in 2015 up to 40%, Joinfo.ua reports with reference to UNIAN.
This is stated in the government report on results of 2015, published on the website of the Cabinet.
“In general, the military conflict in eastern Ukraine discovered vulnerability of the productive economic system of the region as well as the economy in general. According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, more than 40% negative contribution to GDP growth is connected with the situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” – said in a statement.
Government recalled that, according to Ministry of Economic Development, the decline in GDP results for 2015 will be 10.4%, with growth in Q4 2015 compared to the 3rd quarter was 0.2%.
“If the impact of the situation in the East would be excluded, the GDP in 2015 would amounted to 5.9%, industry – 5.2%, agriculture – 2.9%, construction – 9.1%”, – the report said.
As UNIAN reported earlier, the National Bank of Ukraine has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s economy in 2016 to 1.1% from 2.4% projected earlier and improved assessment of the fall in GDP in 2015 to 10.5% from 11.6%.
The main creditor of Ukraine – The International Monetary Fund – predicts economic decline of our country in 2015 by 9% and an increase by 2% in 2016. IMF’s inflation forecast coincides with the expectations of government – at 45.8% in 2015, and 12% – on the results of 2016. More pessimistic in their forecasts of the World Bank, which believes that the economy in 2015 will fall by 12%, while growth in 2016 will not exceed 1%.
According to the UNIAN’s expert consensus forecast, GDP growth in 2016 could reach 1% on the basis of the industrial production growth at 3% and inflation slowing to 19%.
The Ministry does not expect the collapse of Ukrainian economy, and inflation forecast for 2016 remains at 12%.